Here is a fun trivia fact for you (that you’ve probably heard already). The last time Clemson was 8-0, who did beat them? Thats right, Georgia Tech, in 2000. George Godsey led a 5-2 Georgia Tech team into Death Valley, and knocked off #4 Clemson on a last second pass to Kerry Watkins, who made a one handed catch.
In fact, that was October 28th, 2000, 11 years ago from tomorrow.
We also knocked off Clemson the last time they made it to at least 4-0. That was in 2007. 4-0 and 13th ranked (I think) Clemson came into Atlanta and left unbeaten no more.
So Georgia Tech gave Clemson its first loss in its two best starts to a season in the last couple of decades.
In addition, we have beaten Clemson since 2000 every single time they have entered the game undefeated. They are 0-4 against GT in that span when they have a zero in the loss column. In both 2004 and 2009, Clemson entered the game 1-0.
Wonder what the odds are of us knocking Clemson off this time?
Most would probably say not good. Many would say our chances are nearly zero. Some might actually say literally zero.
Well, stranger things have happened.
First, I feel obligated to point out that Vegas still has Clemson favored by a little more than a field goal. It opened at 4.5, and hovered around 4 most of the week (I am not sure what it is at the moment).
Vegas is not in the habit of giving away free money. They tend to know what they are doing.
So what does Vegas know that nobody else seems to know?
First of all, Vegas probably understands we have a pretty significant situational advantage. No matter how many times Clemson’s coaching staff has told them “GT is a good football team”, “GT always plays us tough”, and “this will be a very tough road test”, Clemson’s players are human. They know what we did the past two weeks. They have seen the film. It would be very difficult, if not impossible, for them to come into this game thinking anything other than they should win fairly easily.
And its hard to play as intense as you otherwise might when you think you should win.
Conversely, we are at home again for the first time in 3 weeks. We are hosting a top 5 ranked team. Our season has been nearly ruined in the past 2 weeks, but this type of statement game could get us (almost) right back on track. Additionally, we (essentially) have to win this game to stay in the conference race. Stranger things have happened, especially in the ACC, but we would need a lot of luck to win the Coastal with 3 losses.
So our backs are against the wall. All the psychological factors favor us. I expect Clemson will get our best shot. I doubt they will be able to respond with their best shot.
So, point #1 in setting this spread (and thus predicting the game) is to consider that GT is likely to play one of its better games of the season, and Clemson probably will not.
After that, you move into the specific matchups.
Our defense has quietly been playing pretty well. Within the ACC, we are statistically one of the better defenses. We played a poor game against UVA, although only conceded 24 points which is not awful, but besides that game we have played pretty well for the most part.
Additionally, our strength on defense is Clemson’s strength on offense - passing. We are a pretty good pass defense. Within the conference, NC State, Maryland and Miami are the better passing teams we have played. We held them to 17 point (Miami’s offense, not counting special teams), 16 points (Maryland) and 14 points (NC State until garbage time).
The teams that have given us more trouble are UNC and UVA, the pro style outfits that have pretty good power running games - our weakness.
Clemson is not very good at power running. They are a pretty good running team, but they do a lot of misdirection, and a lot of attacking the edge, etc. Not so much just powering right at you.
As a defense, we are faster than we are strong. And Groh does a good job keeping us in position. So, misdirection plays and plays that run wide play to our strengths.
This is not to say that our defense is magically going to shut Clemson down. We are only a pretty good defense, while Clemson is a great offense. But, the fact that our defensive strengths match up well with what Clemson likes to do means that Clemson might not score as much as you would expect Clemson to score against a team with a defense ranked similarly to GT’s.
Another matchup factor is that Clemson is more of a second half team. They average 40.6 points per game, but only 17.75 in the first half. They score 22.85 in the second half. That is nearly a touchdown more in the second half. Why is that relevant? Well, Clemson plays a very up tempo style, with a lot of downfield passing. This means they do not run much clock. So their games last longer and they get more possessions. Scoring more in the second half is likely a result of wearing their opponents down, and finding weaknesses they can exploit.
Obviously, Georgia Tech runs a lot of clock. Especially lately, we have been going on 15 and 20 play drives for our touchdowns. In conference, our games typically average a little under 11 possessions per game, for each team. In the last two games, we have had 9 and 10 possessions. Those are very quick games.
Clemson averages 40 points per game, but only 27 points per game in its first 10 possessions. This game may only last 10 possessions...
It will be a battle of contrasting styles, but if GT can move the ball and eat some clock, Clemson could well find themselves not wearing us down as much as they are used to wearing down the opposing defense, and not finding the rhythm that Clemson is used to finding.
Additionally, our offense might matchup well with Clemson’s defense. Teams that use option running attacks, misdirection, and attack the edges have had success against Clemson.
FSU has almost no running game, and Virginia Tech, Boston College and UNC have fairly traditional run games. Those teams only rushed for 29, 102, 126 and 133 yards respectively against Clemson. None averaged more than 3.6 yards per carry.
However, Auburn, Maryland and Wofford have more option and misdirection type running attacks. Those three ran for 237, 272 and 291 yards. And none rushed for less than Wofford’s 4.77 yards per carry. Maryland and Auburn both ran for more than 6 yards per carry.
We (obviously) run an option based attack. Nothing like the traditional pro style run game that Clemson seems to excel defending.
So, we have a fairly good matchup defensively, a fairly good matchup offensively, we might frustrate Clemson with our time of possession, we are at home, and we will probably have a pretty significant psychological advantage.
All of that adds up to a pretty significant chance of an upset.
In fact, when you consider that, on paper, we are really only about 10 points worse than Clemson, all of the above factors might actually mean we should be favored.
Yes, that is correct, I just said we are only about 10 points worse than Clemson even without all of the factors above.
How is that possible? Well, remember that “on paper” means all games all season long. Obviously we are playing worse right now. Clemson has been fairly consistent since their slow opening two games. Our average performance through the first 6 games would probably be good enough to play Clemson to a near draw.
But how likely are we to produce such a performance right now? Probably not very.
As I have explained on here several times in the past few weeks, my opinion is that we are fatigued right now. We need a bye week badly. We are not deep at all, and that means that playing week in and week out takes more out of us than our opponents. We simply don’t have as many players to rotate into the game.
So, we are beat up and tired (probably more so that Clemson who I think is a little deeper). Meaning we are not likely to play like we did the first six weeks. We are more likely to play like the last two.
My guess is that the way we played (on average) the first six weeks is nearly even with Clemson, and the way we played the last 2 is probably about 30 points worse than Clemson.
So, how do I arrive at only 10 points worse? Well, I expect in a game this big, we will come out playing with a lot of adrenaline and emotion. That should allow us to play with more energy for at least a half or so. I don’t think we have enough in the tank to play a full game at a high level, but I do think we will play with more energy than we have the past two weeks.
Combine that with the fact that I think we simply played poorly the last few weeks. It was not all fatigue. We just made some dumb mistakes. Special teams errors. Missed blocking assignments. Missed reads.
If we do that stuff again, then forget everything I said above. It won’t be close.
But I think (hope) that in a big game at home, we will play more focused.
So, in summary, I think our tired team will play on an emotional high, with a renewed focus due to this being such a big game for us. Playing at that level, I think Clemson is about 10 or maybe 14 points better than we are. But that is before you consider the specific matchups and the situation. Pretty much every one of those factors at least slightly favors GT.
So, when you take everything into account, Clemson being favored by such a small number makes more sense.
I do actually think Clemson will cover that spread. I think the above factors are valid, but I think we are just too worn down. Emotion and Adrenaline only lasts so long. I think we give Clemson a scare, but in the end eventually Clemson gets the win.
I do think both Groh and Johnson will have good gameplans, and will call a good game (per usual). In particular, Groh will probably challenge Clemson’s offensive coordinator Chad Morris more than most defensive coordinators he faces this year.
Clemson has too many playmakers to slow down that much, but I bet you Groh limits some of what they do, and we generate a few stops.
I also do think the game plays a little faster than Clemson is used to, and thus we will hold them below their average simply because they won’t get the ball as many times as they are used to having it.
Overall, I will call it Clemson 31, GT 24.
But, of course, that is contingent on us executing a little better than we have the past couple of weeks. If we play like we did last week, it will be a lot worse than that.
If Clemson plays a bad game, or we play a good game, we could actually win. Based on our physical ability, that would not be as big of an upset as some think. We have not played up to our physical ability for a couple of weeks. But we are still capable of playing that way.
Unfortunately, I think we need the bye week before we get back near that level.
So, 7 point loss, but not a bad effort.
Hope I am wrong about the winner. We’ll see.
Go Jackets!
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