I’m going to pick the season 2 ways. I’ll pick each game based on what I think is the most likely outcome, then I’ll also assign a percentage to each game, to get a more accurate idea of our expected record. You might be the better than every team you play, and thus favored in every game, but if your chances of winning are only 70% in each game, then you should not expect to be 12-0. The most likely outcome of each individual game is a win, but you still should expect to be something like 8-4. So, we are going to look at these predictions two ways.
Virginia Tech - I felt more confident about this pick before we started scratching players off the depth chart left and right. Young suspended, Drummond suspended, Holton out, Sims & Laskey a little banged up... etc. However, I’m sticking with it. GT gets the win. I believe the key will be an improved defense. Al Groh has said from day 1 that his defense makes the biggest improvement from year 2 to year 3. Until I see evidence proving him wrong, I’m going to trust the man. He has won a Super Bowl as defensive coordinator. He has coached a lot of football. The same thing happened with his defense at UVA. I think we will be significantly better on that side of the ball this year. Combine that with the fact that VT lost a lot of production from their offense last year, and that Logan Thomas had a career game against us and is not likely to play that well again, and I think we get the win. VT’s defense will be very good, but they simply are not strong enough up front to completely shut us down. They are fast and smart on defense, but to shut us down, you need D-Linemen that are so big and strong we simply can’t block them. (Think Iowa, LSU, Miami a couple of times etc). VT is not that kind of defense. Plus I think this will be our best O-Line. It will be a tough, hard fought close game. But I like GT to win something like 24-17.
GT Odds to Win - 55%
Presbyterian - Even off the short week, this will be an easy win. VT lost to James Madison in the same situation 2 years ago, but I think JMU was better than Presbyterian, and anyway VT gave that game away with a bunch of turnovers. So JMU still needed a good deal of luck to win.
GT odds to win - 99%
UVA - Another GT win. As my previous posts show, UVA was not a very good offense last year. I don’t think they will be much better this year, so our improved defense should have a good game here. UVA’s defense was pretty good, but they lost a lot on the D-Line and from the secondary. Plus, I don’t think they were actually better than us last year. They benefitted from us playing poorly. At home, early in the year, a revenge minded GT won’t play poorly.
GT odds to win - 85%
Miami - As they showed yesterday, this team is still talented and has plenty of speed. Stephen Morris always has been a talented QB. But I think this is finally the year we get the Miami monkey off our backs. They lost a ton of experience and production from both offense and defense, and most importantly, they lost Sean Spence. We could not block that linebacker. Their defense won’t give us so much trouble this year.
GT odds to win - 65%
MTSU - Another easy win. Just like the last 2 years.
GT odds to win - 98%
Clemson - As much as I hate to type this, I think Clemson gets the better of us this year. They certainly are due. I still like the matchup for us, on both sides. Their offense sets up very well for Groh’s scheme and our personnel. Their defense is still very poor at beating blocks on the edges. Which means our pitch plays should be very successful against them, again, which will open up everything else. But they have a lot of talent, they are in year 2 of Morris’ offense, and they will have the situational advantage this year. Just the opposite of last year. This time, we will be the highly ranked team on the road (assuming we are 5-0 with a win in Blacksburg, I expect us to be ranked around #10). Of course, if Clemson beats FSU, they could also be unbeaten. But I think they lose in Tallahassee. So the pressure will be on us. Good game, tough loss.
GT odds to win - 40%
Boston College - They will be better, but still not very good. Not as good defensively as usual. At home, off a bye week, a comfortable GT win, by 17 or so.
GT odds to win - 90%
BYU - Don’t sleep on Brigham Young. A pretty good football team. This will be a tough test. At home I like us to get the win, but this is a very losable game. Could go to OT. I would be happy with any win here. Not even worrying about style points.
GT odds to win - 60%
Maryland - Really not a very good football team. Hung on to barely beat Bill and Mary yesterday. Should be an easy win, even on the road. Then again it should have been an easy win last year as well. And they still have Joe Vellano (D-linemen who got 20 tackles on us last year). And I think Edsall is actually a pretty good coach. At some point their chemistry problems will stop and that team will respond to him. Might be sometime this season. And, to complicate matters further, this seems like the place in the schedule for a lackluster game. On paper an easy win, tough non conference game right before, tough road game right after. Anyway, should be a win, but might get complicated (just like last year).
GT odds to win - 80%
North Carolina - Probably the hardest team to figure at this point. They do have some talent. And probably a coaching upgrade, although I don’t think Fedora is as good as UNC fans think he is. They are in the first year of a complicated offensive scheme, so catching them early would probably be better than late. Lucky us, of course we get them late. But I think our improved defense will do enough here. Tough road game. Could be a loss. But we usually beat UNC in a close game. I think we do it again.
GT odds to win - 65%
Duke - Is THIS finally the year that Heather Dinich has been warning us about, when Duke will FINALY be much better and make a bowl? Ok so I like to make fun of the espn.com ACC blog. I actually do think Duke will be a little better this year. Still not good enough. At home, with a better defense, easy GT win.
GT odds to win - 95%
UGA - As much as I would love to find a reason to claim GT wins here (we do seem to play better in Athens...) I just don’t see it. They are returning a great defense and very good QB. We will be better this year and hopefully will be good on offense AND defense for a few years in a row, which will give us a good chance to get at least one win over UGA in the next few years (we’ve been trying to beat them with half a team for a few years now...) But this will be one of UGA’s best teams in recent memory. I think it will be close. Not the disappointment we saw last year. But same result.
GT odds to win - 35%
ACC Champ Game - Yes, that is right. We beat VT and went 7-1. I have us in the ACCCG against FSU. Who, by the way, has a GREAT defense. I think we are a complete enough team this year that nobody will blow us out if we play well, but I think FSU is too good. Low scoring game, but they find enough points to win, something like 20-17.
GT odds to win - 40%
Game by Game Record - 10-3 (7-1).
Predicted Record by Percentage 9.1 wins, 3.9 losses (5.75 wins, 2.25 losses)
So I think we win something like 9 or 10 games. The VT game could definitely go either way, but I’m picking us to win. If we win it, I think we win the Coastal. I would not be shocked to see us with the ACC Champ Game as well, but I don’t think the odds are in our favor. Unless Clemson gets there (especially if they beat us the first time.) But enough hedging bets. Those are my picks. We beat VT and lost to FSU in the Champ Game.
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