I think this week’s preview will be pretty short and sweet, mostly because at this early stage of the season, there is just not much data to analyze. We have each only played two games, and for both UVA and GT, one of those games was against a clearly overmatched opponent. So, this will be broad.
Let’s begin with another video showing how much help we gave them last year. This game was a particularly lackluster performance for us last year. I have included only the plays that I consider to be major mental mistakes. I did not include Tevin’s interception because that was mostly a physical mistake. I also did not include dumb plays that did not really hurt us. A good example is the block in the back that negated Orwin’s 66 yard catch and run in the 3rd quarter. This did not hurt us because without the block in the back, that defender almost certainly makes the tackle. So it cost us 10 yards, and not 50 as it might first appear. The format is pretty simple. I freeze the video at the dumb mistake, and add some text to explain what I’m talking about. Then I show the play again at regular speed.
You can’t make those kind of mistakes on the road against a quality opponent.
Anyway, my prediction for Saturday is a GT win. The main reason is simply that I thought we were better than UVA last year, and they lost more than we did. So we should still be better. In fact, the gap should have widened. I know we lost last year, but as the video showed, I thought we got in our own way several times. (yes, UVA made some dumb plays too, and we made others not included in the video. Both teams always make dumb plays every game. However, I thought we made more such plays than normal, and the ones we made were more egregious than normal...) We were favored by about 7 last year, and had both teams played an average game, I think we would have won by about that margin.
Coming into this year, UVA lost a few players from a bad offense, and a bunch of players (3 D-linemen and 3 Defensive Backs) from a pretty good defense. I expect their defense will still be good, but not as good. Their offense should still be below average.
At this point, I remain concerned about our offense. We look out of sync to me. Not blocking particularly well. Our timing looks off. We have people taking false steps. Nobody moving confidently or with a purpose. I’m reminded of my high school basketball team. In practice we would always spend a few minutes “dummying” our offense - ie running our offense with nobody guarding us. The first team guys could do this quickly and smoothly. Everybody knew exactly where to go, and they made purposeful cuts and passes. They did this in games all the time, and thus running it in practice was second nature. The second team offense was a lot clumsier. People would forget when to cut and when to screen. Sometimes a player would go the wrong direction for a half step before realizing. Etc.
Right now, our offense looks like the 2nd team. I guess this makes sense. Our A-backs and WR’s lack much live experience. Then again, the O-Line and the QB are generally the positions that need that experience the most. And we have it there. I’m a little puzzled. I expected us to be running pretty smoothly even early in the season. Oh well. We aren’t. We need to improve quickly on this front.
But I doubt the improvement happens this game. I don’t think UVA’s defense will be as good as last year. But it will still be pretty good. I expect us to struggle early, mostly hit a few good plays but have drives stall out, and probably only get to 21 or 24 points for the game. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
The good news is, 21 or 24 points is all we should need. I still think our defense is legit. Its only been one real game, but I have not seen anything to suggest otherwise. Groh has been saying it. We look the part. I’m on board. Our D-line looks improved. A little stronger, a little better able to hold the point of attack. Our linebackers look like serious playmakers. A lot of speed, good tacklers, and they know where they are going. They move with a purpose to the right place, and can do some things when they get there. Our secondary was above average last year. It is still very good, although like all college secondaries, occasionally has some breakdowns. But overall, this should be a good unit.
I’m hoping this year will proceed a lot like 2008. As you remember, our offense started off pretty sluggish. We got some ugly, low scoring wins (BC, Clemson) aided by defensive points (safety at BC, pick 6 at Clemson). But eventually the offense started to click (Miami, UGA). Hopefully the offense will pick things up faster since this is not the first year of the scheme, as 2008 was.
Maybe the biggest matchup for this game will be our defensive ends against their offensive tackles. Their tackles are excellent. Probably their biggest strength. Last year they were able to seal the edge and collapse our D-line, and most of their rushing yards came around the corner. They gained 270 yards on the ground. They hardly hurt us passing, and when they did, it was on play action, which probably only worked because the run was working so well. If our defensive ends can compete, we should be ok. Note I said “compete”. They probably don’t even need to win this battle. Just don’t lose it badly. If they can be competitive, our LB’s should be able to clean up enough plays that we can force UVA into some passing situations, and that should lead to stops.
I like UVA’s coaching staff. I think they do a good job overall. I expect a good game plan. They certainly had a good game plan for us last year, on both sides of the ball. But I like our coaches better. I think we have a slight edge here. Plus we are at home, and we had the easier game last week. Athletically, UVA is probably about the same as us. Maybe we have the slight edge, but its not much. However, I think when you add up all the factors, this looks like a moderately comfortable win for us. I think the 10 point spread is about right. I see a 21-13 or 24-13 GT victory. As I said, I hope our offense surprises me, but I have not seen anything so far to indicate that we will put up a bunch of points on a good defense at this stage of the season.
But its been a while since our defense keyed a win over a decent opponent. That would be refreshing. I think it happens.
Let’s Go Jackets!
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